Methodology for Assessing the Export Potential of Arctic Mineral Resources in the New Conditions of Monopolistic Competition

Annotation

The article analyzes theoretical and methodological approaches to the spatial organization of neo-geoconvergent development of the Russian Arctic economy in the context of the challenges of 21st-century postmodernity, characterized by high geopolitical instability and the destruction of traditional forms and models of the global economy. Estimation methods based on logarithmic linearization of the gravity equation suffer from serious specification inaccuracy due to omitted variables, which complicates the interpretation of results and leads to unreliable estimates. By contrast, models estimated using an extended specification that accounts for Arctic trade barriers significantly reduce the deviations caused by the influence of multilateral resistance factors, thereby enhancing the reliability of empirical estimates and conclusions. Applying our method to the example of coal reserve development, we demonstrate how the distance elasticity of trade changes when Arctic trade barriers are taken into account and find that the indicators of the Arctic coal industry’s development presented in government documents suffer from statistically significant inaccuracies. Trade elasticity coefficients in the traditional gravity equation are systematically lower than those obtained using logarithmically linearized regressions that account for Arctic trade barriers. This study is a continuation of a series of the author’s works devoted to the Newest General (and Special) Theory of Neo-Geo-Convergent Development of the Economy of the Russian Arctic.

About authors

Sergey A. Agarkov, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Chief Researcher
Luzin Institute for Economic Studies — Subdivision of the Federal Research Centre “Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences”, ul. Fersmana, 24a, Apatity, Russia
agarkovsa@yandex.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3417-0265

Medea V. Ivanova , Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Chief Researcher
Luzin Institute for Economic Studies — Subdivision of the Federal Research Centre “Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences”, ul. Fersmana, 24a, Apatity, Russia
mv.ivanova@ksc.ru, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6091-8804

Keywords

Arctic zone, neo-geoconvergent approach, spatial complementarity, Arctic trade barriers, gravity equation

DOI

https://doi.org/10.37482/issn2221-2698.2026.64.42

UDC

[338.56:553:339.5](98)(045)